Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.019531 0.022155 0.025009 0.028344 0.032135 0.036314 0.041273
2025-05-11 0.015090 0.018617 0.022791 0.028099 0.034681 0.042586 0.052825
2025-05-18 0.012744 0.016645 0.021532 0.028119 0.036785 0.047826 0.063014
2025-05-25 0.010931 0.014954 0.020236 0.027698 0.038004 0.051786 0.071708
2025-06-01 0.009834 0.014006 0.019709 0.028105 0.040201 0.057079 0.082559
2025-06-08 0.008772 0.012947 0.018865 0.027901 0.041420 0.061010 0.091761
2025-06-15 0.008175 0.012469 0.018760 0.028696 0.044090 0.067190 0.104783
2025-06-22 0.007225 0.011351 0.017582 0.027728 0.043953 0.069088 0.111361
2025-06-29 0.006556 0.010591 0.016858 0.027362 0.044666 0.072288 0.120211
2025-07-06 0.005856 0.009709 0.015851 0.026425 0.044337 0.073742 0.126262
2025-07-13 0.005620 0.009556 0.015995 0.027374 0.047183 0.080607 0.142041
2025-07-20 0.005361 0.009337 0.016001 0.028076 0.049649 0.087017 0.157599
2025-07-27 0.005130 0.009154 0.016065 0.028907 0.052459 0.094350 0.175690
2025-08-03 0.004744 0.008662 0.015549 0.028660 0.053313 0.098286 0.187954
2025-08-10 0.004439 0.008286 0.015204 0.028680 0.054643 0.103177 0.202459
2025-08-17 0.004101 0.007819 0.014649 0.028251 0.055067 0.106385 0.213964
2025-08-24 0.003907 0.007605 0.014543 0.028666 0.057151 0.112937 0.232757
2025-08-31 0.003652 0.007251 0.014140 0.028458 0.057969 0.117054 0.246938
2025-09-07 0.003538 0.007163 0.014244 0.029269 0.060919 0.125700 0.271455
2025-09-14 0.003235 0.006670 0.013503 0.028282 0.060040 0.126381 0.278880
2025-09-21 0.003023 0.006345 0.013075 0.027908 0.060419 0.129713 0.292423
2025-09-28 0.002772 0.005918 0.012402 0.026952 0.059450 0.130060 0.299258
2025-10-05 0.002720 0.005911 0.012608 0.027920 0.062804 0.140140 0.329452